The Inflation Factor: It Wasn't Just the Economy

And for American voters who cared more about the economy than other issues – and the nearly half who said they are worse off financially than four years ago – their choice for the next president appeared resoundingly clear: Republican Donald Trump.

Trump claimed victory in the 2024 presidential contest after Fox News projected that he had defeated Democrat Kamala Harris after he won in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.

About 31 percent of voters said the economy was their top issue, ranking second behind the 35 percent who said the state of democracy mattered most to them, according to national exit polling data from Edison Research. And the voters who identified the economy as their primary concern voted overwhelmingly for Trump over Harris – 79 percet to 20 percent.

More than half of voters said inflation had caused them a moderate hardship in the last year, while nearly one in four said it had caused a severe hardship. Those saying it had caused a moderate difficulty leaned somewhat more to Trump, 50 percent to 47 percent, but 73 percent of those calling it a severe hardship voted for the former president.

Edison’s exit polling data showed 45 percent of voters across the country said their family’s financial situation was worse today than four years ago, compared with just 20 percent in 2020. Those voters favored Trump over Harris 80 percent to 17 percent.

The results dovetail with surveys that have shown consumers giving the economy poor ratings even though unemployment is near historic lows, growth overall has been largely above trend, consumer spending remains robust, and overall household wealth is at a record high.

The University of Michigan’s twice-monthly Consumer Sentiment Index, for instance, plunged to a record low in the summer of 2022 when inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index peaked at 9.1 percent year-over-year – the highest since the early 1980s.

While it has improved in the two years since as stiff interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve have brought inflation back to near the central bank’s 2 percent target, sentiment remains well below the levels that prevailed during Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2021.